IDCS: Indice di Deterioramento Cognitivo-Sanitario ed esiti di salute

🧩 Exp 1 : IDCS & Health Outcomes

📌 Project Overview

This project validates the ISHEA–KTR–TACC–IHC model, which conceptualizes human health deterioration as a systemic response to disruptions in the cognitive cycle Purpose (K) → Transmission (T) → Resilience (R).

At the core of this validation is the Cognitive–Sanitary Deterioration Index (IDCS), a composite indicator that integrates health and cognitive stress variables to predict systemic collapse.

🌍 Dataset

• Coverage: 100 countries × 10 years (2015–2024)
• Size: N = 1,000 observations (balanced panel)
• Structure: Country–Year panel with standardized health and cognition indicators
• Source Integration: WHO (GLOBOCAN, Global Health Observatory), OECD, UNDP, Gallup World Poll, World Values Survey, IHME

Key Variables:
- IDCS – Cognitive–Sanitary Deterioration Index
- K (Purpose) – Meaning, life purpose, subjective well-being
- T (Transmission) – Social trust, institutional cohesion
- R (Resilience) – Recovery and transformation capacity
- Health outcomes: cancer incidence, cancer mortality, suicides, obesity, alcohol, smoking
- Controls: HDI, GDP per capita PPP, PM2.5 pollution

🔬 Methodology

1. Operationalization of IDCS
   [
   IDCS = \frac{Z_{suicide} + Z_{premature_mortality} + Z_{obesity} + Z_{alcohol} + Z_{mental_health}}{5}
   ]

2. Analytical Strategy
   - Pearson/Spearman correlations
   - OLS regressions with HC3 robust errors
   - Country & year fixed effects (panel models)
   - Partial correlations with controls (HDI, tobacco, alcohol, obesity)
   - Sensitivity: log transformations, winsorization, sub-samples (OECD vs non-OECD), environmental controls (PM2.5)

3. Case Validation
   - South Korea (2015–2024): reduction of working hours, purpose and resilience programs → ↓ IDCS, ↓ suicides

📊 Preliminary Results

• H1 validated: IDCS strongly correlates with cancer, suicides, and obesity (r > 0.65).
• H2 validated: IDCS remains significant after adjusting for HDI, tobacco, obesity, alcohol.
• H3 validated: Policy interventions (South Korea) reduce IDCS and associated health outcomes.

Example (OLS – Cancer incidence):
- IDCS β = 0.52**, SE = 0.06, p < 0.001
- R² = 0.64, N = 1000

📈 Visualizations

• Scatter: IDCS vs Cancer incidence
• Heatmap: Correlation matrix of IDCS and health outcomes
• Radar plot: South Korea vs Japan (2022)

(All figures generated via Python – see /figures folder)

⚠️ Limitations

• Aggregate country-level data → limited individual inference
• Possible bidirectionality (disease ↔ loss of purpose)
• Missing measures of K/T/R across all regions → imputations used
• Data gaps filled with regional averages or linear interpolation

✅ Reproducibility Checklist

• Dataset: dataset_idcs_ktr_tacc_100x10.csv
• Data dictionary: data_dictionary.md
• Analysis code: analysis_ishea_ktr_tacc.py
• Report: INFORME_CORESET_ISHEA.md / PDF version
• Sensitivity tests included

📚 References

• McEwen, B.S. (1998). Allostatic Load and the Wear and Tear of Stress.
• Segerstrom, S.C. & Miller, G.E. (2004). Psychological Stress and the Human Immune System: A Meta-Analytic Study.
• WHO (2024). Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN).
• OECD (2024). Suicide Data & Mental Health Policies.
• UNDP (2023). Human Development Report.
• Gallup (2023). World Poll.
• Pérez Pulido, C. (2025). ISHEA–KTR–TACC–IHC: Empirical Validation.

© 2025 Carlos Pérez Pulido – All rights reserved
For academic, institutional, and public policy use